2855 Club Cortile Cir

Kissimmee, FL 34746

$259,500D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$298
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-75/mo
• Annual: $-900/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $72,660

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-900/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1292 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.