520 N 4th St

Union, OR 97883

$70,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 871 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $526/mo
• Annual: $6,312/yr
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.20%
• DSCR: 2.43
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#128 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union SD 5 (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #79 of 183 in OR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #242 of 412 statewide, top 59%, 206 students, 70% FRL); Union High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #113 of 143 statewide, top 79%, 170 students, 41% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Union SD 5 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 38 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.