206 Cambridgeshire Ct

Johnson City, TN 37615

$199,999D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,059 sqft · Built 1994 · Townhouse · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,613/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Ridge Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #67 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Bell Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #42 of 333 statewide, top 13%, 898 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.