3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,098/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$812
Tax + insurance
−$93
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$231
Net cashflow
$-38/mo
Annual
$-457/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.05%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$43,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-457/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (29.1% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#348 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Sanville Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 238 students, 92% FRL); Fieldale-Collinsville Middle (math 43% / reading 76%, grade B, #160 of 342 statewide, top 48%, 805 students, 99% FRL); Bassett High (math 54% / reading 78%, grade B, #200 of 319 statewide, top 64%, 1,107 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 62% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Bassett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29