392 Rock Creek Ln

Cumberland, VA 23936

$325,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,051/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-304/mo
• Annual: $-3,648/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (36.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#499 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Buckingham County Public School District (rural): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #117 of 131 in VA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Buckingham Co Elementary (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #928 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 417 students, 92% FRL); Buckingham County Middle (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 466 students, 92% FRL); Buckingham County High (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 96 units permitted in Buckingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buckingham County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.