2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
972 sqft ·
Built 1935
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,676/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$299
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$2/mo
Annual
$24/yr
Cap rate
6.31%
Cash-on-cash
0.04%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($24/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (14.1% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $168k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Potter Elementary School (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 472 students, 89% FRL); Mclane Middle School (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 817 students, 74% FRL); Middleton High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,511 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 190 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $195k implies a 1200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YBCY4BCY57K5SX
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29