10178 Collins Ave #208

Bal Harbour, FL 33154

$475,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$1,009
• HOA: −$458
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$923
• Net cashflow: $-487/mo
• Annual: $-5,841/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $389k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#217 in FL, #3,392 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $475k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,394/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.