128 Pinson Ln

Chickamauga, GA 30707

$230,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-434/mo
• Annual: $-5,206/yr
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#133 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Walker County (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #114 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Ridge Elementary (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #519 of 1,228 statewide, top 42%, 562 students, 73% FRL); Chattanooga Valley Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 491 students, 67% FRL); Ridgeland High School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,244 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 347 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walker County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $230k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.4% in Chickamauga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.