168 Linden Ave

Urbanna, VA 23175

$219,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $558/mo
• Annual: $6,695/yr
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.92%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#482 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in Urbanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.