39 Cherokee Trl

Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$280,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$177
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-802/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-802/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tomoka Elementary School (math 62% / reading 61%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 50% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Seabreeze High School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 1,654 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 991 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $168k; list at $280k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.