2569 Herschel St

Jacksonville, FL 32204

$539,400D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,572 sqft · Built 1957 · MultiFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,786/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,829
• Tax + insurance: −$986
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-404/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $151,032

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-404/yr) — negative. Per door: $-8/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $533k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $479k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($523k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $479k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Riverside Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 289 students, 49% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $539k implies a 457% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,786/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 866% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?