17478 E Rice Cir Unit C

Aurora, CO 80015

$209,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 544 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$430
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-638/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-638/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Cherry Creek School District No. 5 In The County Of Arapah (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #11 of 86 in CO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Point Elementary School (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #879 of 966 statewide, top 94%, 400 students, 53% FRL); Falcon Creek Middle School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #69 of 270 statewide, top 27%, 687 students, 31% FRL); Grandview High School (math 53% / reading 80%, grade B, #28 of 381 statewide, top 7%, 2,774 students, 22% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,927 units permitted in Arapahoe County in 2024 (1,525 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arapahoe County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?