4 bd · 4.0 ba ·
3,792 sqft ·
Built 1956
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 112 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,712/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$384
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$360
Net cashflow
$-185/mo
Annual
$-2,217/yr
Cap rate
5.28%
Cash-on-cash
-3.60%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (14.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.1% below list).
It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $171k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#131 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Toccoa Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #374 of 1,228 statewide, top 31%, 563 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Toccoa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YD10FGEPGD22Z2
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29