7815 Boca Ciega Dr

St. Pete Beach, FL 33706

$1,100,000F

24 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax + insurance: −$2,260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,582
• Net cashflow: $-2,078/mo
• Annual: $-24,937/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $308,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×2bd/1.0ba + 2×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $1.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-520/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $799k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $753k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($968k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $753k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 0.9% in St. Pete Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,532/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 552% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.