1643 Baseline Ln

Gifford, FL 32967

$369,500D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,938
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$562
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$745
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,667/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $103,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $355k (4.0% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $345k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#538 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, employment F, housing F.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dodgertown Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 485 students, 78% FRL); Gifford Middle School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 582 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Indian River average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $318k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Gifford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,548/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.