3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,232 sqft ·
Built 2006
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 71 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,183/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$781
Tax + insurance
−$186
HOA
−$64
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$458
Net cashflow
$694/mo
Annual
$8,322/yr
Cap rate
11.88%
Cash-on-cash
19.95%
DSCR
1.89
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$41,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Debary Elementary School (math 62% / reading 65%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 915 students, 38% FRL); River Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 1,249 students, 50% FRL); University High School (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,901 students, 49% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $67k; list at $149k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.7% in DeBary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YDXK179C6S7WPY
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29