82774 Matthau Dr

Indio, CA 92201

$459,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 241 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,030/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$633
• HOA: −$278
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,620/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $435k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 514 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $459k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Indio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,030/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 2036% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?