502 Lilly St

Greenfield, MO 65661

$115,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $227/mo
• Annual: $2,724/yr
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#707 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Greenfield R-IV (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #283 of 535 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenfield Elem. (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 206 students, 52% FRL); Greenfield High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 143 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.
• Dade County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.8% in Greenfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.