3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,661 sqft ·
Built 2006
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,900/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,258
Tax + insurance
−$229
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$399
Net cashflow
$14/mo
Annual
$165/yr
Cap rate
6.36%
Cash-on-cash
0.25%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$67,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($165/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.8% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $190k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in MS, #2,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bellevue Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #100 of 375 statewide, top 27%, 1,124 students, 100% FRL); Oak Grove Middle School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D+, #37 of 179 statewide, top 20%, 1,294 students, 100% FRL); Oak Grove High School (math 42% / reading 58%, grade D+, #19 of 197 statewide, top 10%, 1,777 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (57 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Hattiesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YERX6KAZB7MY4Z
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29