4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,876 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,119/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,340
Tax + insurance
−$426
HOA
−$35
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$445
Net cashflow
$-127/mo
Annual
$-1,522/yr
Cap rate
5.70%
Cash-on-cash
-2.13%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$71,537
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (7.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (17.1% below list).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $212k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D-.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 473 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,119/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 840% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YFMC4911CEY7EQ
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29