409 E Jeff Davis Ave E

Selma, AL 36701

$19,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,068/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $698/mo
• Annual: $8,377/yr
• Cap rate: 48.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 150.33%
• DSCR: 7.69
• 1% rule: 5.37%
• Cash to close: $5,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $698 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#407 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Selma City (town): math 2% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #118 of 129 in AL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 137 students, 92% FRL); Selma High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #265 of 305 statewide, top 89%, 719 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 89% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 48.4% vs local median 7.5% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.