404 County Route 35

Mexico, NY 13069

$147,000B-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,740 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,878/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palermo Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 223 students, 56% FRL); Mexico Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #640 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 614 students, 59% FRL); Mexico High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 577 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.