416 Walker Ridge Rd

Big Rock, TN 37023

$140,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $387/mo
• Annual: $4,650/yr
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.86%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Stewart Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #164 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 432 students, 0% FRL); Stewart Co High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 627 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.