1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
750 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Condo
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,715/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,101
Tax + insurance
−$350
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$694/mo
Annual
$8,328/yr
Cap rate
10.26%
Cash-on-cash
14.17%
DSCR
1.63
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$58,772
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $210k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: New Lane Memorial Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 789 students, 44% FRL); Selden Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 1,058 students, 37% FRL); Newfield High School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,559 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $109k; list at $210k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Coram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YGP0MCFVDG478N
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29