800 S Jefferson St

Pilot Point, TX 76258

$190,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,706/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $35/mo
• Annual: $419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen countertops — tile needs replacement
• Moderate: paint — faded and needs touch-up