Dakota Transitional Plan

Heber, UT 84032

$864,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,635 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,422/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,179
• Tax + insurance: −$1,964
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-5,440/mo
• Annual: $-65,278/yr
• Cap rate: 0.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.79%
• DSCR: 0.12
• 1% rule: 0.29%
• Cash to close: $329,930

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $865k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-65k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (54.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (60.4% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($761k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $342k (60.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $35k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#68 in UT, #4,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Wasatch District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 80 in UT (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wasatch High (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #55 of 171 statewide, top 32%, 2,531 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 1764 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 835 units permitted in Wasatch County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wasatch County population projected at +87% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 1.0% in Heber — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.