3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,234 sqft ·
Built 1971
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,368/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$52
Tax + insurance
−$7
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$287
Net cashflow
$1,021/mo
Annual
$12,252/yr
Cap rate
128.81%
Cash-on-cash
437.55%
DSCR
20.47
1% rule
13.68%
Cash to close
$2,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $9k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $71 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Cleveland Es (math 32% / reading 12%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 300 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 128.8% vs local median 6.0% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29