2619 W Cool Water Way

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$389,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,966 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$85
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-616/mo
• Annual: $-7,397/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.79%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (42.2% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Ranch Elementary School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #631 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 49% FRL); Poston Butte High School (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #241 of 381 statewide, top 63%, 1,393 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $389k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.