306 Palm Ave

Anna Maria, FL 34216

$1,695,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,902 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax + insurance: −$1,432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $-841/mo
• Annual: $-10,090/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $474,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.55M (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.20M (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.64M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $63k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#214 in FL, #3,340 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $1.70M implies a 1894% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$102k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.