237 Trinity River Holw

San Marcos, TX 78666

$201,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,059
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-279/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $56,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $202k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-279/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dezavala El (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 575 students, 87% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 63% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1146 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?