174 Fletcher St

Tonawanda, NY 14150

$145,000B

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,606 sqft · Built 1907 · MultiFamily · Pending · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $1,434/mo
• Annual: $17,202/yr
• Cap rate: 18.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.37%
• DSCR: 2.89
• 1% rule: 2.18%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 366 students, 50% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $3,165/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.