35 Hilltop Ln

Indian Point, MO 65616

$280,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,384 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-201/mo
• Annual: $-2,413/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#369 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1048 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $280k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.2% in Indian Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?