Destin Plan

Dundee, FL 33838

$247,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,817 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 746 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,018/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax + insurance: −$413
• HOA: −$148
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-267/mo
• Annual: $-3,206/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $69,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $248k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 746 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbert Elementary School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 746 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.