3172 Quiet Forest Dr

Murphy, MO 63052

$130,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,377/yr
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.22%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#461 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.