2151 Oakland Rd #73

San Jose, CA 95131

$199,999B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 150 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $1,218/mo
• Annual: $14,621/yr
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.11%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Orchard Elementary (urban): math 51% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #225 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Elementary (763 students, 44% FRL); Evergreen Valley High (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A-, #45 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,767 students, 13% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orchard Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 68 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $200k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof shows significant damage and discoloration, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding is weathered and peeling, requiring a major repair or replacement.
• Major: exterior flooring — The flooring is cracked and worn, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: exterior paint — The paint is peeling and in poor condition, requiring a major repair or replacement.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of maintenance, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: fencing — The fencing is damaged and in poor condition, requiring a major repair or replacement.