5 Runyan Rd

Hummels Wharf, PA 17870

$80,000B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,893/yr
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.38%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#615 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Selinsgrove Area SD (town): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #138 of 539 in PA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Selinsgrove Intrmd Sch (math 37% / reading 59%, grade D, #726 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 552 students, 45% FRL); Selinsgrove Area Ms (math 43% / reading 60%, grade C, #109 of 512 statewide, top 22%, 523 students, 44% FRL); Selinsgrove Area Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 802 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Snyder County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Snyder County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.