3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,416 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,943/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$404
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$408
Net cashflow
$-520/mo
Annual
$-6,244/yr
Cap rate
4.31%
Cash-on-cash
-7.08%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.62%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-520 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (29.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (38.3% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (38.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
St. Johns Public Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 540 in MI (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: St Johns Middle School (math 28% / reading 54%, grade F, #195 of 493 statewide, top 41%, 569 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 26% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 154 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $258k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YK0VMD09C5F0E8
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29