17 Spyrock Rd

Scotts Corners, NY 10576

$1,890,000B-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,343 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,911
• Tax + insurance: −$3,178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,094
• Net cashflow: $2,312/mo
• Annual: $27,742/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $529,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.89M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.89M).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.83M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.83M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $86k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#810 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bedford Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #211 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.11M; list at $1.89M implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $529k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$138k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in Scotts Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.