842 County Road 4414

Ben Wheeler, TX 75103

$130,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $384/mo
• Annual: $4,612/yr
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.67%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rhodes El (392 students, 64% FRL); Van J H (math 33% / reading 49%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 389 students, 59% FRL); Van H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.5% in Ben Wheeler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.