4 bd · 5.0 ba ·
3,391 sqft ·
Built 2022
· Condo
· Active
· 231 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,330/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$292
HOA
−$575
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$909
Net cashflow
$1,007/mo
Annual
$12,081/yr
Cap rate
10.39%
Cash-on-cash
14.63%
DSCR
1.65
1% rule
1.47%
Cash to close
$82,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath condo listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $295k).
It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#163 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Washington District (urban): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #37 of 80 in UT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Three Falls School (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #278 of 585 statewide, top 49%, 592 students, 28% FRL); Tonaquint Intermediate (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #96 of 138 statewide, top 69%, 735 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1033 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,140 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (650 in 5+ unit buildings).
Washington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,330/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29