1471 SW 58 Hwy

Holden, MO 64061

$172,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Pending · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-910/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-910/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#167 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kingsville R-I (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #445 of 535 in MO (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $102k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Holden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.