1913 E County Road 400 S

New Castle, IN 47362

$130,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,664 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $834/yr
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($834/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.2% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#64 in IN, #4,219 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• South Henry School Corporation (rural): math 25% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #258 of 301 in IN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tri Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #697 of 994 statewide, top 73%, 315 students, 55% FRL); Tri Junior-Senior High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #336 of 369 statewide, top 91%, 438 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.