1148 Third Ave Spc 97

Chula Vista, CA 91911

$259,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,247 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,806/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $685/mo
• Annual: $8,222/yr
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.34%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lauderbach (J. Calvin) Elementary (747 students, 80% FRL); Castle Park Middle (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #252 of 498 statewide, top 51%, 724 students, 80% FRL); Castle Park Senior High (math 30% / reading 56%, grade F, #460 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,433 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.