4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,828 sqft ·
Built 2023
· Land
· Pending
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,576/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,757
Tax + insurance
−$420
HOA
−$8
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$541
Net cashflow
$-150/mo
Annual
$-1,795/yr
Cap rate
5.76%
Cash-on-cash
-1.91%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$93,797
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $335k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (7.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (23.1% below list).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $258k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#677 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At $2,576/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YKTND3F3V8WEN9
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29