4450 Rivercliff Way

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31032

$364,900D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,133 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-987/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $102,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-987/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $288k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones County High School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 1,626 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.