2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,296 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,475/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$183
Tax + insurance
−$58
HOA
−$745
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$310
Net cashflow
$179/mo
Annual
$2,148/yr
Cap rate
12.45%
Cash-on-cash
21.98%
DSCR
1.98
1% rule
4.23%
Cash to close
$9,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
Swartz Creek Community Schools (suburban): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #298 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Elms Road Elementary School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #850 of 1,397 statewide, top 61%, 345 students, 54% FRL); Swartz Creek Middle School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #289 of 493 statewide, top 60%, 801 students, 56% FRL); Swartz Creek High School (math 24% / reading 47%, grade F, #367 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 1,042 students, 47% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YM3H532GE6J1XQ
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29