3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,792 sqft ·
Built 1989
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,312/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$529
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$485
Net cashflow
$-66/mo
Annual
$-792/yr
Cap rate
5.99%
Cash-on-cash
-1.09%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$72,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-792/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (4.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.1% below list).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $231k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Gene Howe El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 373 students, 50% FRL); Greenways Int (math 73% / reading 50%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 619 students, 35% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YMD8285Z9XZ1TG
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29