2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,144 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 120 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,616/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$326
HOA
−$121
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$339
Net cashflow
$-62/mo
Annual
$-740/yr
Cap rate
5.86%
Cash-on-cash
-1.56%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.9% below list).
It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $65k; list at $170k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Liberty Triangle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-YN3C15AGY1QSCQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29