1409 Burlington Ave

Beverly, NJ 08075

$250,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $711/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($711/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (0.1% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#130 in NJ, #3,487 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Delanco Township School District (suburban): math 8% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #431 of 472 in NJ (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Beverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.