559 Halls Creek Rd

New Bern, NC 28560

$119,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $303/mo
• Annual: $3,640/yr
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.84%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#125 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pamlico County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #111 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pamlico County Primary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 345 students, 99% FRL); Pamlico County Middle (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 271 students, 98% FRL); Pamlico County High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 464 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 56% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 10 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Pamlico County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pamlico County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $120k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.